Silver Price Forecast 2026–2027: What the Banks Expect Now
HSBC expects silver at $70 by end-2026 and $65 by end-2027. Where silver stands after its $121.64 January record, what moves it now, and what to watch.
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Silver was about $61 an ounce on 11 October 2026. That is half its record of $121.64, set on 29 January after a 147% rise in 2025, and below what most banks expected it to average this year. Since spring the metal has moved on interest rates more than on anything else, and the forecasts below should be read with that in mind.
This page sets out what the forecasters expect now, what has driven silver this year, and what would have to happen for it to end 2026 higher or lower. Why it rose so far in the first place is covered in why is silver going up.
How silver got here in 2026
| Date | Silver (USD/oz) | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan | 121.64 (record) | Peak, the same day gold set its record |
| 19 Apr | 80.95 | Rebound after a fall to about $69 in late March |
| 14 May | 87.23 | Spring high in StackFi’s price feed |
| 25 Jun | 57.65 | Selloff as bets on Fed rate rises lifted the dollar |
| 17 Jul | 55.60 | Low of the year in StackFi’s price feed |
| 27 Aug | 69.63 | Rebound of 25% from the July low |
| 16 Sep | about 63.40 | Fed raises rates for the first time since 2023 |
| 11 Oct | about 61 | Half the January record |
Silver moves like gold with the volume turned up. When gold fell 25% from its January record, silver fell 50%. The May-to-July drop alone was 36%.
What the forecasters expect now
| Forecaster | When | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | May 2026 | $70 at year-end ($75 average) | $65 at year-end ($68 average) |
| Reuters poll of analysts | April 2026 | $78 average for the year | — |
| Silver spot, for comparison | 11 October 2026 | about $61 | — |
Both forecasts were published before silver fell below $60 in June, and silver has been below both since. HSBC’s analysts expected prices to weaken in the second half of both years and warned that the gold-silver ratio could widen, meaning silver could fall even in a year when gold rises. That is roughly what has happened since May.
Other banks’ current targets are hard to pin down: reports quote different numbers for the same bank, often from notes written before the summer fall. When you read any silver target, check the date first. A note from April describes a market where silver traded above $70.
What has driven silver this year
Interest rates. The selloff in June came as markets started to price rate rises, and on 16 September the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00%, its first increase since 2023. The 10-year Treasury yield traded around 5% afterwards. Silver pays no interest, so when bonds pay 5%, holding it costs more.
The dollar. A stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for buyers outside the US. It rose through the summer as rate expectations climbed.
Solar panels using less. The Silver Institute expects photovoltaic demand to fall about 19% in 2026, to around 151 million ounces, the largest drop on record for the sector. After silver’s price doubled, panel makers sped up the work of using less of it in each cell.
Investors leaving. Funds and futures traders that bought into the 2025 rally sold as rates rose. Silver’s market is small enough that flows like these move the price on their own.
What still supports silver
The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey, published in April, counted a 2025 market deficit of 40.3 million ounces and forecast a wider one, 46.3 million ounces, for 2026. That would be the sixth year in a row that the world uses more silver than it mines and recycles. Mine supply is roughly flat, and buying of coins and bars is expected to rise 18%. Demand from AI data centres, cars and power grids also kept growing in 2025, offsetting some of solar’s decline.
A deficit is a reason silver stocks above ground keep shrinking, not a price forecast. Silver can fall during a deficit year, as 2026 shows, when rates and the dollar push harder the other way. The numbers behind the deficit are in our silver supply deficit 2026 page.
The gold-silver ratio
On the May high, one ounce of gold bought about 54 ounces of silver. By 11 October it bought about 69. A rising ratio means silver is falling faster than gold, which is what HSBC warned about. A falling ratio has usually marked the stretches when silver outperformed. Its long history, and why it is a poor timing tool on its own, is in our gold-silver ratio history.
Three scenarios for the end of 2026
These are conditions, not predictions.
1. The Fed keeps raising rates. If it raises again on 28 October and signals more on 9 December, with yields near 5%, the July low of $55.60 is the level to watch. Gold would likely be under pressure too, and silver would fall further than gold.
2. The Fed stops after September or October. Lower yields and a softer dollar would be the conditions most forecasts assumed. In that case a move back toward HSBC’s $70 year-end figure is plausible; silver recovered 25% in six weeks this summer.
3. A shock. A wider war or financial stress has pushed silver both ways this year: down when funds sold everything for cash, up once that stopped. Expect large moves in both directions before any trend.
Dates to watch
- 28 October and 9 December: the last two Fed decisions of 2026.
- November: the Silver Institute usually publishes its interim market review, which updates the 2026 deficit estimate.
- Monthly US inflation reports: the main input to how many more rate rises markets expect.
How to use a silver forecast
- Plan for the volatility, not the target. Silver lost half its value in under six months this year. If a 30% fall would force you to sell, the position is too large.
- Buy in stages if you are adding. Two Fed meetings remain this year; spreading purchases across them avoids putting everything in at one price.
- Choose how you hold it. Coins and bars cost a premium to buy and sell; ETFs and tokens cost less to trade but add a custodian. The trade-offs are in physical silver vs silver ETF vs tokenized silver.
For the gold side of the same picture, see our gold price forecast for 2026.
FAQ
What is the silver price forecast for the end of 2026?
HSBC expects $70 an ounce at the end of 2026, in a note published in May 2026. The Reuters poll of analysts in April put the 2026 average at $78. Silver was about $61 on 11 October 2026, below both.
Will silver go back to $100?
It traded above $100 in late January 2026 and peaked at $121.64 on 29 January, so the level is not new. None of the forecasts above expects it back there by the end of 2027: HSBC’s 2027 year-end figure is $65. Getting back to $100 would take falling interest rates and a return of the investment buying that drove the 2025 rally.
Why did silver fall after its record?
Mostly because of interest rates. Markets began pricing Fed rate rises in June, the Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and the dollar and bond yields rose. Solar panel makers also cut the silver in each panel, and speculative buyers who drove the January peak sold.
Is the silver deficit still real if the price fell?
Yes. The Silver Institute counted a 40.3 million ounce deficit in 2025 and forecasts 46.3 million ounces for 2026. A deficit draws down stocks above ground over years; it does not stop the price from falling when rates rise.
Is silver a better buy than gold right now?
Silver falls further than gold in a downturn and rises further in a recovery, so it suits someone who can hold through a 50% drawdown. The gold-silver ratio near 69 says silver is cheaper relative to gold than it was in May, but the ratio can widen further before it turns.
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